The First Drone War: A New Era in India-Pakistan Conflict

The First Drone War: A New Era in India-Pakistan Conflict

In Short

• The India-Pakistan conflict has entered a new phase with the first known drone warfare exchange between two nuclear-armed nations.

• India accuses Pakistan of drone and missile strikes on military bases; Pakistan denies and claims to have shot down 25 Indian drones.

• Drones, loitering munitions, and UAVs are now shaping modern military strategy in South Asia, raising both strategic advantages and serious escalation risks.

• Global powers call for restraint as both countries balance deterrence with emerging unmanned technologies.

The decades-long rivalry between India and Pakistan has entered a dangerous new chapter: drone warfare. On Thursday, India accused Pakistan of launching waves of drones and missiles at military installations in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan swiftly denied the allegations but claimed it had downed 25 Indian drones in cities including Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi.

India has remained silent officially, though defence experts see these developments as a significant escalation. The drone strikes signal the arrival of unmanned conflict in South Asia, introducing a new dynamic to the already volatile India-Pakistan border.

Drone Warfare and the Risk of Escalation

As global powers like the US urge both sides to exercise restraint, analysts warn the region is at a critical juncture. Drones—silent, deniable, and precise—reduce the threshold for military action while increasing the risk of miscalculation.

"Invisible eyes and unmanned precision may determine escalation or restraint," says Professor Jahara Matisek of the US Naval War College.

Pakistan reports Indian cross-border air strikes have killed 36 people in its territory, while India claims at least 16 civilians have died from Pakistani shelling. Delhi insists its missile strikes were in retaliation for a deadly militant attack on Indian tourists in Pahalgam—an attack Islamabad denies.

Drones in Action: Tactics and Technology

According to Pakistan's military, the intercepted drones included Israeli-made Harop loitering munitions. These drones serve both surveillance and strike functions, targeting radar emissions and facilitating follow-up missile strikes. This dual role—reconnaissance and suppression—is also observed in the Ukraine conflict.

India’s drone fleet is heavily reliant on Israeli platforms such as the IAI Heron, Searcher Mk II, and the Harop. These offer long-range surveillance, endurance, and precision strike capability. The Harop is particularly notable for its autonomous targeting and loitering ability.

India is also pursuing swarm drone tactics—deploying groups of small UAVs to overwhelm enemy air defences. A recent $4 billion deal to acquire 31 MQ-9B Predator drones from the US marks a significant upgrade to India's drone arsenal.

Pakistan’s Drone Capabilities

Pakistan’s drone inventory is more diverse, sourced from China, Turkey, and domestic manufacturers. Key systems include the Chinese CH-4, Turkish Bayraktar Akinci, and indigenous Burraq and Shahpar drones. The Pakistan Air Force has been integrating drones into its strategy for nearly a decade, focusing on manned-unmanned teaming, or "loyal wingman" drones.

“Pakistan’s focus on drone development shows a long-term strategic investment,” says defence analyst Ejaz Haider.

A Different Kind of Drone War

While comparisons to Ukraine’s drone-centric battlefield are inevitable, experts caution that India and Pakistan are not yet engaged in that scale of UAV warfare. Instead, drones are being used here in targeted operations, often in place of manned jets or large-scale missile attacks—arguably a more restrained form of escalation.

“If this is just a prelude to a broader aerial campaign, the calculus changes entirely,” warns Indian analyst Manoj Joshi.

 

Strategic Implications and the Road Ahead

Drones allow for precision strikes without violating airspace with manned aircraft, offering political deniability and tactical flexibility. But they also pose new risks.

“Every drone downed or radar blinded is a potential flashpoint,” says Prof Matisek.

As drones blur the lines between surveillance and attack, the region stands at a crossroads. The current exchanges may either de-escalate or ignite a larger confrontation. For now, South Asia’s skies have become a proving ground for modern drone warfare—and its consequences.